Elliot Anderson at Nottingham Forest: Making sense of an opportunistic signing (2024)

A reasonable rule of thumb to judge a new signing is how the fans of the club they’re leaving react.

By that measure, Nottingham Forest supporters might be pretty optimistic about the arrival of Elliot Anderson. Nobody connected to Newcastle United — fans, coaches, the manager — seems happy to see Anderson leave, beyond perhaps some relieved accountants.

Much of that reaction seems to be sentimental. Anderson is a local boy, one of the great homegrown hopes of this generation. He’s a graduate of Wallsend Boys Club, the youth team that Alan Shearer, Michael Carrick and Peter Beardsley, among dozens of other future Newcastle players, appeared for. His grandfather, Geoff Allen, played for Newcastle in the Inter-Cities Fairs Cup (sort of a precursor to the Europa League) winning side of 1969. He’s the player fans desperately wanted to work, to become the next Geordie to act as the fans’ proxy on the field.

The reality is that Anderson’s career at Newcastle seemed to be at something of a crossroads.

He was hyped before he reached the first team and continued to be highly rated by many at Newcastle. But since making his debut in January 2021, he made only 13 starts for the first team. Last season he made 26 appearances, 10 of which were starts.

Doubts ranged from what his best position was to whether he’s quick enough for the Premier League to injuries. He was never afforded much of a run in their first team, but was that because his season was disrupted by the back injury he picked up in October or because Eddie Howe simply wasn’t convinced that he was good enough?

On the latter point, Forest seem to agree with Anderson’s now former team-mate Kieran Trippier. “It’s crazy, really, how good he is,” he said of him in 2023. “He’s got a massive future ahead of him.”

New surroundings 🏡

— Nottingham Forest (@NFFC) July 1, 2024

This was something of a surprise signing: while they have admired Anderson for some time, Forest always assumed he was out of reach and midfield wasn’t an area they were actively looking to make additions in unless the right player became available. Newcastle’s concerns over the Premier League’s profit and sustainability regulations and their need to raise fast cash as June came to a close presented Forest with an opportunity.

Anderson is still only 21, an age which on the pitch clearly represents promise and, off the pitch, potential profit in terms of resale value.

He’s one of those players who feels like he has been around for a long time, but to put things in perspective from a Forest point of view, he’s only a few months older than Brandon Aguilera, who is still regarded as a raw prospect for the future.

But given Forest are believed to have paid a significant fee for Anderson — the details have not been made public yet — the scope for the sort of softly, softly patience afforded to Aguilera is relatively limited: he will be a first-team presence immediately. But where?

The answer might be a few different places. “What I love about Elliot is he’s versatile,” Eddie Howe toldThe Athletic last year. “He can play wide, he can play inside.”

His most frequent position in his relatively meagre time in the Newcastle first team was in central midfield. He’s naturally right-footed so would tend to tuck in, essentially operating as an attacking No 8. This is where Forest see his primary role, either in a three or two-man midfield.

However, during a successful loan spell with Bristol Rovers in 2021-22, he was mainly a left-winger and has also played on the flanks of a front three for Newcastle, although he probably isn’t quick enough to be a full-time wide man. He even had a game at left wing-back when Howe dabbled with a back three (unsuccessfully) against Crystal Palace last season.

Versatility can be a double-edged sword, particularly for a player who is coming through and trying to establish themselves. But it could be a huge plus for Forest and maybe even one of the reasons they have spent so much money on him.

Nuno Espirito Santo’s go-to formation last season was a 4-2-3-1, built around the creativity of Morgan Gibbs-White and the dynamism of Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga on the wings. But he also sometimes played variations on a three-man defence, which sometimes looked like a 3-5-2, sometimes a 3-4-3, in some games more realistically a 5-4-1.

There’s a place for Anderson in all of those systems, either on the wing, in midfield or perhaps even as a dual No 10 along with Gibbs-White in a narrower 3-4-2-1 system. Much of the creative burden in the Forest team rests on Gibbs-White’s shoulders, so having Anderson around could be a huge help: the club are said to be excited about the prospect of the two men playing together.

In theory, they have qualities that complement each other nicely. As you can see from the chart above, Anderson’s main asset is recovering the ball from the opposition and progressing it by dribbling upfield. An ideal scenario would be Anderson winning the ball deep, moving it upfield and giving it to Gibbs-White, or indeed one of the wingers to create chances.

He could also create chances on his own. It is perhaps not his forte, but take this example from when Newcastle played Tottenham last season. James Maddison has the ball just inside the Spurs half and tries to take it into Newcastle territory…

… but he is dispossessed by Anderson in the centre circle, who then drives forward.

… and plays a strong through ball into space for Alexander Isak to run behind the Tottenham defence.

In the end, Isak was tackled and didn’t score, but he was put into a great position by the work Anderson did in both recovering possession and quickly turning it into an attack. Gibbs-White might sometimes think he does that sort of thing on his own for Forest, so having someone like Anderson around could help him hugely.

But we shouldn’t discount the possibility that Anderson could ultimately replace Gibbs-White: there seems to be no immediate prospect of anyone coming up with the large amount that Forest would be tempted to take to sell him and if big players are to move out, then there are others, such Murillo and perhaps Taiwo Awoniyi, that are more likely. But a player as talented as Gibbs-White has attracted interest and will continue to do so until the end of the window. This isn’t Plan A, but if Gibbs-White does go, then Anderson could fill his boots.

Anderson’s arrival clearly has interesting implications for Forest’s existing midfielders. Is there space for him, Danilo, Ryan Yates, Nico Dominguez and Ibrahim Sangare in the Forest squad? All five perform slightly different functions, but if Nuno is planning to stick with his 4-2-3-1 system, keeping all five happy might be tricky.

Their happiness or otherwise might not be of much concern to Nuno, however. He may regard having a variety of options, both in terms of tactical flexibility and personnel, as the key factor.

For example, Anderson could quite easily play alongside Yates in a two-man midfield, or Sangare, who Forest hope will bounce back from his tricky first season into the defensive screen and quick passer they hoped for when they signed him. He could also dovetail nicely on the side of a three with either Danilo or Dominguez, perhaps with Sangare in the middle. At the very least, he presents Forest with options.

All of which will come to nought if Anderson turns out to be, frankly, not much good. Newcastle still rate him highly and on a football level were reluctant to let him go. However, it’s clear that he hasn’t yet reached the levels that many hoped he would. Indeed, some of his performances have been pretty disappointing.

Maybe that is just down to the inevitable hyping up of youngsters, perhaps over their realistic ability, that we are all guilty of. Maybe that’s because his progression has been disrupted by injury — he was out from October to February last season, suffering that setback just at a point where he looked like he might establish himself. Maybe he needs consistent football: his longest run of starts last season was just three. Maybe he’s simply not quite at the level for a Champions League team, which is what Newcastle aspire to be.

As with any player so young, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic and plenty to be cautious, from a Forest perspective. Spending so much money on Anderson, who is yet to prove himself as a consistent Premier League player, is clearly a gamble. But if the gamble pays off, then just like Gibbs-White, we could look back in a couple of years and declare Anderson a bargain.

(Top photo: Stu Forster via Getty Images)

Nick Miller is a football writer for the Athletic and the Totally Football Show. He previously worked as a freelancer for the Guardian, ESPN and Eurosport, plus anyone else who would have him.